Whitepaper 1 ยท Tue 1 Dec
The Markdown Ledger.
Black Friday markdowns, read every morning from 27 to 30 Nov and graded against 9 to 22 Nov: lower, unchanged or higher, by category. Every number dated, every share with its footnote.
Send it to me on Tue 1 Dec
Generated imageThe series
Three papers, one argument.
| When | Paper | What it shows |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 1 Dec | Whitepaper 1: The Markdown Ledger | Black Friday markdowns by category, graded against the weeks before |
| Late Dec | Whitepaper 2: The Footnotes of 2026 | The year's headline numbers, each with its footnote |
| January | Nobody Grades the Forecast | Our thesis: forecasts nobody grades, everyone reading the same signals, and AI making the sameness faster |
The thesis, in January
Nobody Grades the Forecast.
The waste
Up to 40% unsold
Of what the industry makes, by one estimate, on 80 to 150 billion garments a year. Source: Source Fashion and Insider Trends, June 2025.
The sameness
Better alone, alike together
Generative AI raised individual creativity but made the collective output more similar. Source: Doshi and Hauser, Science Advances, 2024.
The speed
More than a third already use it
More than 35% of fashion executives use generative AI for routine tasks. Source: McKinsey and The Business of Fashion, The State of Fashion 2026.
Inside
What the thesis argues.
Forecasts nobody grades
Predictions are sold, never scored, so nobody knows which ones were right.
Everyone reads the same signals
Shared inputs produce shared assortments, and shared assortments produce shared markdowns.
AI makes the sameness faster
Research shows AI makes each person's work better and everyone's work more alike.
The bill
The same market, read the same week, priced very differently by category.
What seeing looks like
Decisions that are brand-true, sourced, scored and remembered, and graded in public.
Who should read it
Everyone who signs off on what gets made.
- Founders deciding where the next season's money goes.
- Merchants and buyers who want evidence instead of consensus.
- Creative leads worried that AI will make every brand look alike.
- Investors and analysts looking at where fashion loses margin.